1 Tables of Assumptions

Table 1‑1 HAZID LNG Transit Route Segments

While the HAZID reviewed the LNG’s carriers approach with respect to distinctive sections of channel, the MQRA risk analysis will use the segment approach presented in Table I-2 in order to provide the results of the analysis over a consistent length (in this case 7.3 km segment length minimum, as required by HK Government, a length consistent with prior risk studies at Ma Wan)..

Table 1‑2 LNG Transit Route Segments

Table 1‑3 LNG Carrier Operation Basis

Table 1‑4 Meteorological Data

Table 1‑5 Waglan Island Station Meteorological Data (Daytime only)

Wind Direction	Stability and Windspeed (m/s) Category
	B - 2.9	F - 2.2	D - 3.3	D - 7
N	0.75%	0.45%	1.24%	8.91%
NNE	2.87%	0.89%	3.27%	7.71%
ENE	4.08%	0.50%	2.12%	20.78%
E	4.17%	0.56%	2.09%	10.81%
ESE	1.85%	0.27%	1.06%	1.31%
SSE	1.28%	0.14%	0.90%	1.11%
S	1.08%	0.18%	0.80%	1.89%
SSW	1.96%	0.15%	0.98%	3.30%
WSW	1.12%	0.16%	0.77%	4.42%
W	0.58%	0.19%	0.46%	0.94%
WNW	0.28%	0.19%	0.40%	0.21%
NNW	0.21%	0.19%	0.25%	0.17%
Total	20.24%	3.87%	14.35%	61.54%

Table 1‑6 Green Island Station Meteorological Data (Daytime only)

Wind Direction	Stability and Windspeed (m/s) Category
	B - 2.8	F - 2.1	D - 3.3	D - 7.0
N	0.61%	0.35%	1.20%	1.57%
NNE	1.20%	0.82%	2.22%	4.38%
ENE	2.32%	0.76%	2.45%	20.43%
E	1.52%	0.37%	1.28%	12.67%
ESE	0.33%	0.23%	0.40%	0.73%
SSE	0.24%	0.25%	0.33%	0.19%
S	6.38%	0.81%	3.24%	8.32%
SSW	3.25%	0.56%	1.62%	4.16%
WSW	1.54%	0.27%	0.70%	1.47%
W	1.46%	0.17%	0.52%	0.87%
WNW	1.27%	0.23%	0.76%	1.67%
NNW	0.71%	0.29%	0.93%	1.97%
Total	20.83%	5.09%	15.64%	58.44%

Table 1‑7 Ching Pak House (CPH) Station Meteorological Data (Daytime only)

Wind Direction	Stability and Windspeed (m/s) Category
	B - 3.1	F - 2.2	D - 3.3	D - 7.0
N	0.97%	0.67%	0.95%	0.51%
NNE	1.37%	0.94%	2.37%	1.15%
ENE	1.96%	0.99%	3.89%	3.81%
E	1.28%	0.64%	2.79%	3.18%
ESE	2.35%	0.85%	4.39%	9.61%
SSE	5.50%	1.05%	4.02%	5.97%
S	7.44%	0.77%	4.28%	5.46%
SSW	1.63%	0.38%	1.39%	0.33%
WSW	0.58%	0.14%	0.30%	0.03%
W	1.78%	0.38%	1.13%	0.62%
WNW	1.26%	0.71%	1.77%	0.41%
NNW	2.13%	1.25%	3.02%	1.58%
Total	28.25%	8.78%	30.30%	32.67%

Table 1‑8 Tai Mo To Station (TMT) Meteorological Data (Daytime only)

Wind Direction	Stability and Windspeed (m/s) Category
	B - 3.0	F - 2.3	D - 3.3	D - 7
N	2.49%	0.61%	3.01%	2.72%
NNE	1.90%	1.05%	2.69%	1.87%
ENE	1.36%	1.27%	2.64%	0.55%
E	2.26%	1.21%	3.49%	4.63%
ESE	3.52%	0.79%	3.93%	15.54%
SSE	1.89%	0.65%	1.94%	4.41%
S	1.08%	0.51%	1.13%	1.63%
SSW	1.40%	0.30%	1.01%	1.74%
WSW	1.24%	0.33%	1.06%	1.05%
W	4.20%	0.36%	1.51%	1.06%
WNW	5.83%	0.30%	1.79%	2.33%
NNW	1.26%	0.35%	1.23%	0.86%
Total	28.44%	7.72%	25.44%	38.39%

Table 1‑9 Black Point (Shau Chau Station) Meteorological Data

Wind Direction	Stability and Windspeed (m/s) Category
	Day				Night
	B - 2.5	F - 2.0	D - 3.0	D - 7.0	F - 2.0	D - 3.0	D - 7.0
N	2.48%	0.92%	1.37%	13.75%	2.08%	0.89%	9.93%
NNE	0.72%	0.61%	0.76%	4.38%	1.78%	0.84%	7.12%
ENE	0.55%	0.61%	0.59%	0.55%	1.89%	0.76%	0.95%
E	2.00%	1.57%	2.43%	6.07%	6.69%	2.97%	9.53%
ESE	1.68%	0.90%	1.32%	15.98%	3.82%	1.84%	20.08%
SSE	1.06%	0.61%	0.36%	3.12%	2.28%	0.60%	3.83%
S	2.43%	0.71%	0.65%	3.64%	1.81%	0.74%	3.88%
SSW	3.35%	0.86%	1.39%	9.04%	2.06%	1.01%	6.91%
WSW	0.07%	0.16%	0.05%	0.02%	0.23%	0.02%	0.04%
W	0.08%	0.09%	0.01%	0.01%	0.11%	0.00%	0.01%
WNW	1.58%	0.35%	0.21%	0.07%	0.62%	0.04%	0.05%
NNW	3.78%	0.74%	1.09%	5.22%	1.59%	0.53%	2.45%
Total	19.79%	8.12%	10.23%	61.85%	24.95%	10.24%	64.81%

Table 1‑10 South Soko (Cheung Chau Station) Meteorological Data

Wind Direction	Stability and Windspeed (m/s) Category
	Day				Night
	B - 2.5	F - 2.0	D - 3.0	D - 7.0	F - 2.0	D - 3.0	D - 7.0
N	1.57%	1.92%	1.31%	11.42%	6.05%	1.31%	13.14%
NNE	1.60%	0.94%	1.34%	4.21%	3.02%	1.20%	4.36%
ENE	0.81%	0.68%	0.92%	3.05%	3.26%	1.56%	5.02%
E	0.87%	0.65%	1.39%	14.86%	3.57%	2.19%	19.48%
ESE	3.18%	0.62%	1.38%	18.32%	2.02%	0.75%	9.32%
SSE	2.10%	0.44%	0.93%	2.92%	1.21%	0.36%	2.29%
S	2.41%	0.35%	0.72%	2.77%	1.35%	0.53%	3.47%
SSW	1.78%	0.27%	0.67%	4.97%	1.40%	0.58%	4.13%
WSW	0.89%	0.23%	0.44%	2.10%	1.20%	0.54%	1.80%
W	0.40%	0.27%	0.28%	0.79%	1.27%	0.41%	0.83%
WNW	0.22%	0.17%	0.09%	0.30%	0.61%	0.10%	0.25%
NNW	0.47%	0.22%	0.21%	1.57%	0.65%	0.18%	0.59%
Total	16.30%	6.74%	9.68%	67.28%	25.63%	9.70%	64.67%

Figure 1‑1 Wind Rose Data for Six Weather Stations Considered

Table 1‑11 ERM Time Period Classification

Time Period	Definition	Hours in a week	Time Fraction
Night	7pm – 7am	84	0.500
Peak	Monday-Friday 7am-9am, 5pm-7pm Saturday 7am-9am, 1pm-3pm	24	0.143
Weekday	9am – 5pm (including Sat 9am-1pm)	44	0.262
Weekend Day	Saturday 3pm-7pm Sunday 7am-7pm	16	0.095
	Total	168

Table 1‑12 PVS Zone Land Population Totals

PVS Zone	Provided by Hong Kong Government		ERM Analysis
	2011	2021	2011	2021
001	51,726	53,849	77,838	72,514
002	0	0	0	0
003	48,603	48,741	54,077	50,547
012	7,082	7,201	14,230	13,899
041	2,668	3,128	3,257	3,670
042	6,433	6,778	36,534	35,168
043	15,188	14,976	21,964	20,806
044	14,795	14,483	16,783	16,265
045	43,132	39,040	53,699	48,012
046	17,001	15,412	28,705	18,170
047	43,839	40,772	64,495	55,575
048	50,432	47,949	66,764	60,242
049	13,625	42,751	98,333	129,589
051	6,299	6,155	3,250	3,183
052	5,393	5,163	9,941	8,600
151	45,871	47,058	44,332	45,326
152	72,859	69,752	71,805	67,744
153	37,541	36,048	32,253	30,854
154	56,491	53,018	55,057	51,589
155	222	91	11,039	3,594
156	31,361	33,270	58,770	60,775
157	9,316	10,426	41,702	41,077
158	15,182	14,718	29,793	26,597
161	6,068	5,979	10,637	8,992
162	35,407	33,673	34,738	33,032
163	0	0	30	30
227	9	16	0	27
230	34,645	33,980	28,451	27,544
233	0	0	0	0
234	0	0	936	720
239	2	1	1,129	435
240	0	0	374	288
247	0	0	5	5
251	4,094	4,212	8,835	8,622
258	0	0	16,946	13,254
259	969	1,669	7,140	10,054
284	5	5	5	5
327	3	3	554	468
338	9,999	8,599	20,190	16,277
TOTAL	686,260	698,916	1,024,592	983,547

Table 1‑13 Probabilities of Weather Conditions

Table 1‑14 Calculation of Cloud Height Weighted Average (m)

Distance Downwind (m):	Cloud Height (m)				Weighted Average (m)
	B 2.9	F 2.2	D 3.3	D 7.0
50	16	15	15	13	14.2
100	15	13	13	12	12.9
150	22	13	13	13	15.0
200	32	24	22	19	22.8
250	33	30	32	24	27.8
300	30	30	35	28	29.8
350	24	26	35	31	29.8
400	18	23	33	32	28.4
450	11	20	32	33	27.0
500	0	18	30	33	24.1
550	0	17	28	32	23.1
600	0	16	26	31	22.2
650	0	15	24	30	21.2
700	0	14	21	29	20.1
750	0	13	18	28	19.0
800	0	12	12	26	16.8
850	0	10	4	24	14.2
900	0	0	8	22	13.1
950	0	0	6	19	11.2
1000	0	0	1	14	7.6
1050	0	0	0	7	7.0
1100	0	0	0	0	0.0
Average cloud height (m)	22.3	18.2	20.4	23.8	22.5

Table 1‑15 Land Daytime Population Data

SAFETI Indoor PVS sub-area	2011 Day Indoor Population	2021 Day Indoor Population	SAFETI Outdoor PVS sub-area	2011 Day Outdoor Population	2021 Day Outdoor Population
001	13530	14547	001	6335	5365
002	0	0	002	0	0
003-a	55	55	003	3940	3741
003-b	8179	7551
012-1a	909	988	012-1	1283	1268
012-1b	19	19
012-1c	0	0
012-1d	2205	2161
012-1e	23	24
012-1f	1464	1448
012-1g	0	0
012-2	0	0	012-2	0	0
012-3	0	0	012-3	29	30
041-1a	423	438	041-1	350	371
041-1b	124	111
041-2a	0	0	041-2a	0	0
041-2b	3	3	041-2b	30	35
041-2c	14	16	041-2c	41	48
041-2d	1	1	041-2d	0	0
042-a	612	625	042	5001	4179
042-b	0	0
042-c	31	11
042-d	0	0
042-e	47	38
042-f	868	815
042-g	0	0
042-h	0	0
042-i	46	17
042-j	58	20
042-k	10	10
042-l	96	101
042-m	5364	4938
042-n	200	159
042-o	10	10
042-p	5	5
042-q	0	0
042-r	8458	7696
042-s	32	12
042-t	0	0
042-u	82	45
042-v	8	3
043-a	108	104	043	1694	1587
043-b	668	640
043-c	304	294
043-d	20	20
043-e	581	572
043-f	405	399
043-g	82	78
043-h	561	553
043-i	426	331
043-j	771	585
043-k	770	584
044-a	207	156	044-a	84	76
044-b	69	52	044-b	8	6
044-c	2327	1702	044-c	1362	818
044-d	2	1	044-d	0	0
044-e	2	1	044-e	0	0
044-f	0	0	044-f	0	0
044-g	0	0	044-g	0	0
044-h	0	0	044-h	0	0
044-i	0	0	044-i	0	0
045	9266	8229	045	4372	3898
046-a	5164	3606	046	2175	1360
046-b	259	181
046-c	0	0
046-d	3	3
047-1a	11446	10381	047-1	5146	4439
047-1b	164	127
047-2	385	276	047-2	43	31
048-1a	7148	6437	048-1	5456	4966
048-1b	32	30
048-1c	5	5
048-1d	1410	1051
048-2	45	42	048-2	52	49
049-1a	14060	18859	049-1	10468	13506
049-1b	6478	6478
049-1c	153	390
049-1d	10	32
049-2	0	0	049-2	0	0
049-3	0	0	049-3	0	0
049-4	8	8	049-4	14051	14414
051-1a	527	516	051-1	340	333
051-1b	403	395
051-2	0	0	051-2	88	86
052-1a	1	1	052-1	837	789
052-1b	0	0
052-1c	0	0
052-1d	0	0
052-1e	9	9
052-1f	0	0
052-1g	1324	1165
052-1h	0	0
052-2a	3	3	052-2	119	101
052-2b	187	177
052-2c	2	2
052-2d	3	3
052-2e	0	0
052-2f	0	0
052-3a	2038	1501	052-3	0	0
052-3b	174	128
052-3c	174	128
052-4	20	19	052-4	23	22
151-a	3608	3615	151	3718	3800
151-b	253	260
151-c	253	260
151-d	506	519
152-a	0	0	152	5763	5452
152-b	283	228
152-c	193	142
152-d	730	537
152-e	0	0
152-f	0	0
152-g	561	537
152-h	0	0
152-i	620	508
152-j	11	10
152-k	5	5
152-l	977	893
152-m	5173	4826
152-n	1518	1410
152-o	0	0
153-a	4360	4129	153	2681	2557
153-b	1126	1081
154-1a	1184	1111	154-1	635	596
154-1b	84	79
154-2a	4501	4186	154-2	3892	3639
154-2b	84	79
155-1a	1429	471	155-1	1015	331
155-1b	16	7
155-1c	2	1
155-1d	43	18
155-1e	13	5
155-1f	16	7
155-1g	194	61
155-1h	198	63
155-1i	578	182
155-1j	227	72
155-1k	0	0
155-1l	5	2
155-1m	0	0
155-1n	1452	465
155-1o	65	21
155-1p	0	0
155-1q	5	2
155-1r	11	4
155-1s	5	2
155-1t	177	61
155-1u	5	2
155-1v	973	308
155-2	1	0	155-2	1	0
156-1a	51	52	156-1a	26	27
156-1b	168	147	156-1b	90	81
156-1c	211	223	156-1c	23	24
156-1d	4002	4100	156-1d	1195	1184
156-1f	703	603	156-1f	187	175
156-1g	949	784	156-1g	200	171
156-1h	1325	1298	156-1h	639	651
156-1i	172	141	156-1i	21	17
156-1j	70	71	156-1j	56	57
156-1k	2189	2903	156-1k	1047	1140
156-1m	131	133	156-1m	111	110
156-1n	243	249	156-1n	167	170
156-1o	527	446	156-1o	240	226
156-1p	3761	3529	156-1p	1573	1590
156-1z	22	22	156-1z	23	24
156-2	93	94	156-2	104	107
156-3	215	180	156-3	40	36
156-4	215	180	156-4	40	36
156-5	193	157	156-5	21	17
156-6	0	0	156-6	3	2
156-7t	0	0	156-7	0	0
156-8u	0	0	156-8	3	2
157-1a	3321	2911	157-1	3487	3020
157-1b	193	166
157-1c	6678	6633
157-1d	0	0
157-1e	5	5
157-1f	2	1
157-1g	215	172
157-1h	227	178
157-1i	2554	2254
157-1j	2744	2401
157-1k	7	4
157-1l	0	0
157-2	0	0	157-2	0	0
158-a	472	414	158	3037	2760
158-b	33	32
158-c	102	89
158-d	217	167
158-e	880	660
158-f	3113	2930
158-g	0	0
158-h	5931	4788
158-i	1	1
158-j	1	1
161-a	230	202	161	895	775
161-b	0	0
161-c	2347	1873
161-d	5	5
161-e	5	5
162	3231	3072	162	2886	2744
163-1	5	5	163-1	0	0
163-2	5	5	163-2	0	0
163-3	5	5	163-3	0	0
227-1a	0	5	227-1	0	2
227-1b	0	3
227-1c	0	1
227-2	0	0	227-2	0	0
227-3	0	0	227-3	0	0
230	6138	5858	230	2163	2093
233-a	0	0	233	0	0
233-b	0	0
233-c	0	0
234-a	0	0	234	53	41
234-b	257	197
234-c	0	0
239-1	54	21	239-1	4	2
239-10	172	66	239-10	21	8
239-11	0	0	239-11	0	0
239-12	0	0	239-12	0	0
239-13	0	0	239-13	0	0
239-14	0	0
239-2	172	66	239-2	21	8
239-3	345	133	239-3	42	16
239-4	0	0	239-4	0	0
239-5	0	0	239-5	0	0
239-6	0	0	239-6	0	0
239-7	5	3	239-7	0	0
239-8	0	0	239-8	0	0
239-9	0	0	239-9	0	0
240	193	148	240	21	16
247-1	3	3	247-1	0	0
247-2a	0	0	247-2	0	0
247-2b	0	0
251-10	0	0	251-10	0	0
251-11	405	417	251-11	41	42
251-12	405	417	251-12	41	42
251-1a	62	55	251-1	389	350
251-1b	13	12
251-1c	20	17
251-1d	1	1
251-1e	33	29
251-1f	1	1
251-1g	1	1
251-1h	1	1
251-1i	10	9
251-1j	17	15
251-1k	6	5
251-1l	4	3
251-1m	1	1
251-1n	1337	1222
251-1o	147	125
251-1p	6	5
251-1q	4	3
251-1r	2	2
251-1s	0	0
251-2	7	6	251-2	2	2
251-3	1	1	251-3	0	0
251-4a	1	1	251-4	11	10
251-4b	6	5
251-4c	24	21
251-4d	6	5
251-4e	5	4
251-5a	0	0	251-5	11	9
251-5b	21	18
251-5c	1	1
251-5d	39	38
251-5e	4	3
251-6	47	37	251-6	5	4
251-7a	0	0	251-7	86	68
251-7b	193	152
251-7c	4	4
251-7d	582	462
251-8a	0	0	251-8	197	199
251-8b	0	0
251-8c	32	28
251-8d	21	18
251-8e	28	25
251-8f	0	0
251-9	0	0	251-9	0	0
258-a	241	186	258	986	769
258-b	178	138
258-c	5	5
258-d	0	0
258-e	0	0
258-f	0	0
258-g	11	11
258-h	7254	5688
258-i	0	0
258-j	193	148
258-k	385	296
258-l	193	148
258-m	193	148
258-n	193	148
259-1a	2965	3967	259-1	715	1116
259-1b	0	0
259-1c	11	11
259-2a	6	6	259-2	0	0
259-2b	6	6
259-2c	6	6
259-2d	26	26
259-3	3	3	259-3	0	0
259-4a	100	100	259-4	0	0
259-4b	6	6
259-5	3	3	259-5	0	0
259-6	3	3	259-6	0	0
259-7a	37	64	259-7	0	0
259-7b	11	18
259-7c	5	9
259-7d	5	9
284-1	3	3	284-1	0	0
284-2	0	0	284-2	0	0
327-1a	48	48	327-1	0	0
327-1b	5	5
327-1c	42	42
327-2a	0	0	327-2	0	0
327-2b	0	0
327-3	193	148	327-3	21	16
327-4c	0	0	327-4	0	0
327-4d	0	0
338-1a	12	10	338-1	1509	1184
338-1b	1	1
338-1c	5372	4214
338-1d	1	1
338-1e	5	4
338-1f	3	2
338-1g	0	0
338-1h	5	4
338-1i	6	5
338-1j	0	0
338-2	578	382	338-2	64	42
338-3	34	23	338-3	4	3
FD10		4	FD10		5
FD14		41	FD14		48
FD15		36	FD15		41
FD2		90	FD2		105
FD23		180	FD23		209
FD24		59	FD24		68
FD25		12	FD25		14
FD26		23	FD26		27
FD27		2	FD27		3
FD28		1	FD28		1
FD29		1	FD29		1
FD3		159	FD3		184
FD30		356	FD30		412
FD4		71	FD4		82
FD5		29	FD5		34
FD6		94	FD6		109
FD7		345	FD7		400

Table 1‑16 Road Traffic Population Data

Highway	2011 & 2021 Population
Cheung Tsing Highway	1448
Cheung Tsing Tunnel	448
Lantau Link	1729
North West Tsing Yi Interchange	984
Tsing Long Highway	2929
Tuen Mun Road	8891

Table 1‑17 Marine Population Vessel Classes

Vessel Class	Assumed Velocity (m/s)	Assumed Population	Exposure Factor
Small Craft & Fast Launches	6	5	0.9
Fast Ferries	15	180	0.3
Tug & Tow	2.5	5	0.9
River trade vessels	6	5	0.3
Ocean-going vessels	6	21	0.1

Table 1‑18 Fast Ferry Population Data

Table 1‑19 Marine Population Data for Underway Vessels Provided in the MIA Report
(adjusted for Fast Ferry Populations)

Y	X	SAFETI Marine Population Area	2011 Population at Risk (per km^2)	2021 Population at Risk (per km^2)
D	1	M1-1	0	0
D	2	M1-2	0.08	0.10
D	3	M1-3	0.08	0.10
E	1	M2-1	0.03	0.04
E	2	M2-2	1.86	2.17
E	3	M2-3	8.03	8.98
E	4	M2-4	0.39	0.43
F	1	M3-1	0.10	0.11
F	2	M3-2	0.30	0.33
F	3	M3-3	7.43	8.45
F	4	M3-4	3.32	3.68
G	1	M4-1	0.10	0.11
G	2	M4-2	0.19	0.21
G	3	M4-3	0.72	0.84
G	4	M4-4	7.41	8.34
G	5	M4-5	6.98	7.86
G	6	M4-6	5.11	5.76
G	7	M4-7	3.70	4.19
G	8	M4-8	3.14	3.59
G	9	M4-9	3.26	3.77
H	1	M5-1	0.02	0.03
H	2	M5-2	0.02	0.03
H	3	M5-3	3.08	3.62
H	4	M5-4	5.14	6.04
H	5	M5-5	10.65	12.42
H	6	M5-6	0.74	0.87
H	7	M5-7	1.61	1.86
H	8	M5-8	2.33	2.66
H	9	M5-9	8.96	10.35
H	10	M5-10	3.55	4.05
I	1	M6-1	0.85	0.97
I	2	M6-2	3.11	3.66
I	3	M6-3	5.59	6.59
I	5	M6-5	5.90	6.80
I	7	M6-7	0.48	0.57
I	8	M6-8	2.92	3.43
I	9	M6-9	7.68	8.94
I	10	M6-10	21.87	25.47
I	12	M6-12	0.31	0.34
J	1	M7-1	0.73	0.84
J	2	M7-2	5.53	6.52
J	3	M7-3	0.03	0.04
J	7	M7-7	0.60	0.70
J	8	M7-8	3.85	4.51
J	9	M7-9	12.78	15.02
J	10	M7-10	3.91	4.42
K	1	M8-1	3.09	3.63
K	7	M8-7	5.54	6.52
K	8	M8-8	7.21	8.48
K	9	M8-9	0.71	0.78
K	10	M8-10	1.54	1.76
K	11	M8-11	1.91	2.16
K	12	M8-12	0.45	0.49
L	1	M9-1	9.62	11.24
L	2	M9-2	5.25	6.13
L	3	M9-3	5.82	6.83
L	4	M9-4	6.91	8.11
L	5	M9-5	5.95	6.97
L	6	M9-6	5.95	6.97
L	7	M9-7	5.17	6.03
L	8	M9-8	0.13	0.14
L	9	M9-9	0.61	0.67
L	10	M9-10	0.03	0.04
L	11	M9-11	1.15	1.34
L	12	M9-12	2.19	2.51
L	13	M9-13	0.32	0.35
M	1	M10-1	0.30	0.33
M	2	M10-2	0.82	0.90
M	3	M10-3	0.47	0.52
M	4	M10-4	0.03	0.04
M	5	M10-5	0.03	0.04
M	6	M10-6	0.03	0.04
M	7	M10-7	0.58	0.64
M	8	M10-8	0.58	0.63
M	9	M10-9	0.25	0.27
M	10	M10-10	0.18	0.20
M	11	M10-11	0.18	0.19
M	12	M10-12	0.76	0.87
M	13	M10-13	1.40	1.61
M	14	M10-14	0.06	0.07

Table 1‑20 Daytime and Nighttime Marine Population Data for Underway Vessels

SAFETI Marine Population Area	2011 Daytime Population at Risk (per km^2)	2011 Nighttime Population at Risk (per km^2)	2021 Daytime Population at Risk (per km^2)	2021 Nighttime Population at Risk (per km^2)
M1-1	0	0	0	0
M1-2	0.12	0.04	0.15	0.05
M1-3	0.12	0.04	0.15	0.05
M2-1	0.05	0.02	0.05	0.02
M2-2	2.80	0.93	3.25	1.08
M2-3	12.05	4.02	13.47	4.49
M2-4	0.59	0.20	0.65	0.22
M3-1	0.15	0.05	0.17	0.06
M3-2	0.45	0.15	0.49	0.16
M3-3	11.14	3.71	12.67	4.22
M3-4	4.98	1.66	5.52	1.84
M4-1	0.14	0.05	0.16	0.05
M4-2	0.28	0.09	0.31	0.10
M4-3	1.08	0.36	1.26	0.42
M4-4	11.12	3.71	12.51	4.17
M4-5	10.46	3.49	11.79	3.93
M4-6	7.66	2.55	8.64	2.88
M4-7	5.55	1.85	6.29	2.10
M4-8	4.71	1.57	5.39	1.80
M4-9	4.88	1.63	5.66	1.89
M5-1	0.04	0.01	0.04	0.01
M5-2	0.04	0.01	0.04	0.01
M5-3	4.62	1.54	5.43	1.81
M5-4	7.70	2.57	9.06	3.02
M5-5	15.97	5.32	18.64	6.21
M5-6	1.12	0.37	1.31	0.44
M5-7	2.41	0.80	2.79	0.93
M5-8	3.50	1.17	3.98	1.33
M5-9	13.45	4.48	15.52	5.17
M5-10	5.32	1.77	6.07	2.02
M6-1	1.28	0.43	1.46	0.49
M6-2	4.66	1.55	5.48	1.83
M6-3	8.39	2.80	9.88	3.29
M6-5	8.86	2.95	10.20	3.40
M6-7	0.72	0.24	0.86	0.29
M6-8	4.39	1.46	5.14	1.71
M6-9	11.52	3.84	13.41	4.47
M6-10	32.80	10.93	38.21	12.74
M6-12	0.47	0.16	0.51	0.17
M7-1	1.10	0.37	1.26	0.42
M7-2	8.29	2.76	9.77	3.26
M7-3	0.05	0.02	0.05	0.02
M7-7	0.90	0.30	1.05	0.35
M7-8	5.77	1.92	6.76	2.25
M7-9	19.17	6.39	22.53	7.51
M7-10	5.86	1.95	6.63	2.21
M8-1	4.63	1.54	5.45	1.82
M8-7	8.31	2.77	9.79	3.26
M8-8	10.81	3.60	12.72	4.24
M8-9	1.06	0.35	1.16	0.39
M8-10	2.32	0.77	2.63	0.88
M8-11	2.87	0.96	3.25	1.08
M8-12	0.67	0.22	0.74	0.25
M9-1	14.43	4.81	16.87	5.62
M9-2	7.88	2.63	9.19	3.06
M9-3	8.73	2.91	10.25	3.42
M9-4	10.36	3.45	12.17	4.06
M9-5	8.92	2.97	10.46	3.49
M9-6	8.92	2.97	10.46	3.49
M9-7	7.75	2.58	9.05	3.02
M9-8	0.19	0.06	0.21	0.07
M9-9	0.91	0.30	1.00	0.33
M9-10	0.05	0.02	0.05	0.02
M9-11	1.73	0.58	2.01	0.67
M9-12	3.29	1.10	3.76	1.25
M9-13	0.48	0.16	0.53	0.18
M10-1	0.45	0.15	0.49	0.16
M10-2	1.24	0.41	1.36	0.45
M10-3	0.71	0.24	0.78	0.26
M10-4	0.05	0.02	0.05	0.02
M10-5	0.05	0.02	0.05	0.02
M10-6	0.05	0.02	0.05	0.02
M10-7	0.87	0.29	0.95	0.32
M10-8	0.86	0.29	0.95	0.32
M10-9	0.37	0.12	0.41	0.14
M10-10	0.27	0.09	0.30	0.10
M10-11	0.26	0.09	0.29	0.10
M10-12	1.14	0.38	1.31	0.44
M10-13	2.09	0.70	2.41	0.80
M10-14	0.10	0.03	0.11	0.04

Table 1‑21 Marine Population Data for Stationary Vessels Provided in the MIA Report

Y	X	SAFETI Marine Population Area	2011 Population at Risk (per km^2)	2021 Population at Risk (per km^2)
F	2	M3-2	6.08	6.29
G	3	M4-3	37.79	41.18
G	4	M4-4	10.85	11.79
G	5	M4-5	28.20	27.44
H	7	M5-7	6.38	7.28
H	8	M5-8	37.55	39.70
I	7	M6-7	2.95	3.16
I	8	M6-8	40.03	42.71
I	9	M6-9	35.76	38.30
J	7	M7-7	3.38	3.64
J	8	M7-8	3.38	3.64
J	9	M7-9	10.58	11.28
K	8	M8-8	13.73	14.69
K	9	M8-9	11.61	12.13
K	10	M8-10	76.67	71.10

Table 1‑22 Daytime and Nighttime Marine Population Data for Stationary Vessels

SAFETI Marine Population Area	2011 Daytime Population at Risk (per km^2)	2011 Nighttime Population at Risk (per km^2)	2021 Daytime Population at Risk (per km^2)	2021 Nighttime Population at Risk (per km^2)
M3-2	6.08	1.82	6.29	1.89
M4-3	37.79	11.34	41.18	12.36
M4-4	10.85	3.25	11.79	3.54
M4-5	28.20	8.46	27.44	8.23
M5-7	6.38	1.91	7.28	2.19
M5-8	37.55	11.26	39.70	11.91
M6-7	2.95	0.89	3.16	0.95
M6-8	40.03	12.01	42.71	12.81
M6-9	35.76	10.73	38.30	11.49
M7-7	3.38	1.01	3.64	1.09
M7-8	3.38	1.01	3.64	1.09
M7-9	10.58	3.17	11.28	3.38
M8-8	13.73	4.12	14.69	4.41
M8-9	11.61	3.48	12.13	3.64
M8-10	76.67	23.00	71.10	21.33

Table 1‑23 Total Marine Population Data without Fast Ferries during Daytime

Note: It is assumed that the population is 100% outdoors.

Table 1‑24 Fast Ferry Probabilities of Occurrence, 2011 Large Carrier

Table 1‑25 Final Fast Ferry Point Location Probability of Occurrence, 2011 Large Carrier

Table 1‑26 Night Land Population Data

Table 1‑27 Total Marine Population Data without Fast Ferries during Nighttime

Table 1‑28 Marine Vessel Traffic Classes

Table 1‑29 Daytime Marine Ignition Source Data

Table 1‑30 Night Marine Ignition Source Data

Table 1‑31 Road Traffic Ignition Sources

Table 1‑32 MQRA Scenarios

Note: Although the Sandia Report suggests that grounding events do not pose public risk and there have been no existing loss of containment for grounding, this report includes grounding events in the analysis. The most credible scenario in the analysis was determined to be a small hole in the cargo tank (250mm) as the result of grounding event.

Table 1‑33 Modeled Scenarios

Table 1‑34 Study LNG Carrier Dimensions

Table 1‑35 Release Scenario Model Input

Figure 1‑2 Pool Fire Flame Shape

Note: The height of the fire plume is listed as a “fundamental assumption” in the Study Brief, section 3.7.9.4. This data is not an input assumption or parameter in SAFETI but instead is a data point generated as a result of the consequence modeling. The height of the fire plume, and the resulting radiation from it, is then considered in SAFETI when estimating the consequence impact and hazard to life in terms of individual risk and the EIAO FN curve.

Table 1‑36 Black Point Route Collision Frequency Data – 2011C – Large Carrier (215,000 m³)

Table 1‑37 Black Point Route Collision Frequency Data – 2011C – Small Carrier (145,000 m³)

Table 1‑38 South Soko Route Collision Frequency Data – 2011C – Large Carrier (215,000 m³)

Table 1‑39 South Soko Route Collision Frequency Data – 2011C – Small Carrier (145,000 m³)

Table 1‑40 Black Point Route Collision Frequency Data – 2021E – Large Carrier (215,000 m³)

Table 1‑41 Black Point Route Collision Frequency Data – 2021E – Small Carrier (145,000 m³)

Table 1‑42 South Soko Route Collision Frequency Data – 2021E – Large Carrier (215,000 m³)

Table 1‑43 South Soko Route Collision Frequency Data – 2021E – Small Carrier (145,000 m³)

Table 1‑44 Black Point Route Collision Frequency Data – 2021F – Large Carrier (215,000 m³)

Table 1‑45 Black Point Route Collision Frequency Data – 2021F – Small Carrier (145,000 m³)

Table 1‑46 South Soko Route Collision Frequency Data – 2021F – Large Carrier (215,000 m³)

Table 1‑47 South Soko Route Collision Frequency Data – 2021F – Small Carrier (145,000 m³)

A variable factor ranging from 0 (for bow-on collisions) to 0.65 (for beam-on collisions) was included in the release frequencies presented in the above tables to account for the exposure of the cargo tanks in the event of a collision.

Table 1‑48 Black Point Route Relation of Frequency and Risk Analysis Segmentations

Table 1‑49 South Soko Route Relation of Frequency and Risk Analysis Segmentations

The following table presents the grounding analysis performed by BMT, developed from a review of historic local grounding incidents for vessels of 200m length or greater.

Table 1‑50 Route Node Grounding Frequencies

Table 1‑51 Route Node Grounding Release Frequencies – Large Carrier (215,000 m³)

Table 1‑52 Route Node Grounding Release Frequencies – Small Carrier (145,000 m³)

Table 1‑53 Black Point Grounding Release Frequency Input – Large Carrier (215,000 m³)

Table 1‑54 Black Point Grounding Release Frequency Input – Small Carrier (145,000 m³)

Table 1‑55 South Soko Grounding Release Frequency Input – Large Carrier (215,000 m³)

Table 1‑56 South Soko Grounding Release Frequency Input – Small Carrier (145,000 m³)

BMT also performed an analysis to evaluate the risk of a passing vessel colliding with the carrier, while the carrier is at berth at Black Point or South Soko terminals. It was determined that the frequency of an event at the Black Point berth was 2x10^-8 and 4x10^-8 per year in 2011 and 2021 respectively. The frequency of impact at the South Soko berth was evaluated to be 1x10^-17 and 2x10^-17 per year in 2011 and 2021, respectively.

Table 1‑57 SAFETI Parameters for 2011C Case