Notes for Basic
Tables E1-E20:
(1)
the following analysis is based on the CORE MODEL: t1 + t2
+ pcs1 + pcs2 + pcs3 + pcs4 + pcs5 + pcs6 + pcs7 + pcs8 +
ps1 + ps2 + ps3 + ps4 + ps5 + ps6 + ps7 + ps8 + I1 + I2 +
I3 + I4 + I5 + I6 + holiday1 + holiday2 + influ + temperature
+ humidity.
(2)
t1, t2 denotes linear and quadratic time trend respectively.
(3)
I1, I2, I3, I4, I5, I6 denote the dummy variables as days
of the week (Monday to Saturday) effects (Sunday as reference
day).
(4)
holiday1, holiday2 denotes the dummy variables as holidays
and day after holiday effects respectively.
(5)
influ denotes the dummy variables (value one for the week
if the weekly influenza counts are more than 75% of that
year) as influenza epidemic corresponded to the 1995, 1996,
1997 year.
(6)
temperature denotes the daily mean temperature of the current
day.
(7)
humidity denotes the daily mean relative humidity of the
current day.
(8)
All core models were checked by residual plot, partial autocorrelation
plot.
(9)
All core models were performed using Poisson regression
to obtain estimates; but multiple linear regression on log
transformed counts of different outcomes was also used in
order to obtain R2.
Table
E1: No. of cycles per year for Core Models (before adding the
pollutant):
(Mostly
eight (except nine for respiratory, 75+ years and IHD, 65-74
years) cyclical patterns were identified by Spectral Analysis
for the different outcomes. And the numbers of cycles per
year were expressed in terms of values of k which were presented
in increasing order of their spectral index in the table)
|
Outcome
|
no.
of cycles per year (in terms of k)
|
|
R2 |
|
Respiratory,
all ages
|
1.00 |
0.66 |
2.99 |
2.32 |
1.66 |
0.33 |
4.98 |
1.33 |
|
0.68 |
|
<15
|
1.00 |
1.99 |
0.66 |
3.32 |
1.66 |
1.33 |
4.98 |
0.33 |
|
0.58 |
|
15-64
|
1.00 |
0.66 |
2.99 |
1.66 |
4.98 |
2.32 |
0.33 |
1.33 |
|
0.46 |
|
65-74
|
1.00 |
0.66 |
0.33 |
2.99 |
1.66 |
2.32 |
4.98 |
1.33 |
|
0.46 |
|
75+
|
1.00 |
0.66 |
0.33 |
2.32 |
2.99 |
1.66 |
3.98 |
5.98 |
1.33 |
0.6 |
|
COPD
|
1.00 |
0.66 |
2.99 |
0.33 |
4.98 |
2.32 |
1.66 |
1.33 |
|
0.53 |
|
Asthma,
all ages
|
1.00 |
1.99 |
4.98 |
0.33 |
2.66 |
0.66 |
1.66 |
1.33 |
|
0.41 |
|
<15
|
1.99 |
1.00 |
0.66 |
4.98 |
0.33 |
2.66 |
1.66 |
1.33 |
|
0.44 |
|
15-64
|
1.00 |
4.98 |
1.99 |
2.66 |
0.33 |
1.66 |
1.33 |
0.66 |
|
0.17 |
|
Cardiac,
all ages
|
1.00 |
0.33 |
0.66 |
2.99 |
4.98 |
1.33 |
2.32 |
1.66 |
|
0.72 |
|
15-64
|
0.33 |
1.00 |
0.66 |
2.99 |
4.98 |
1.33 |
2.32 |
1.66 |
|
0.69 |
|
65-74
|
1.00 |
1.33 |
2.32 |
5.64 |
0.66 |
2.99 |
1.66 |
0.33 |
|
0.51 |
|
75+
|
1.00 |
0.33 |
0.66 |
1.99 |
1.33 |
2.99 |
4.98 |
1.66 |
|
0.5 |
|
IHD,
all ages
|
1.00 |
0.66 |
5.64 |
0.33 |
1.66 |
1.33 |
2.32 |
3.65 |
|
0.56 |
|
15-64
|
1.00 |
5.64 |
1.66 |
0.66 |
2.32 |
0.33 |
1.33 |
3.65 |
|
0.51 |
|
65-74
|
1.00 |
1.33 |
1.66 |
5.64 |
2.66 |
1.99 |
3.65 |
0.66 |
0.33 |
0.37 |
|
75+
|
1.00 |
0.66 |
0.33 |
1.99 |
4.98 |
1.66 |
2.66 |
1.33 |
|
0.17 |
|
Respiratory
death, all ages
|
1.00 |
0.66 |
1.99 |
2.66 |
4.98 |
0.33 |
1.66 |
1.33 |
|
0.26 |
|
Circulatory
death, all ages
|
1.00 |
0.66 |
1.99 |
0.33 |
4.98 |
2.66 |
1.33 |
1.66 |
|
0.21 |
Note:
includes those values of k <= 6.
Table
E2: Core model for admissions due to respiratory disease,
all ages
Residual
Standard Error = 0.106, Multiple R-Square = 0.6797
N = 1096,
F-statistic = 78.0157 on 29 and 1066 df, p-value = 0
|
Value
|
Std.
Error
|
t-value
|
p-value
|
| (Intercept) |
5.4118
|
0.2131
|
25.3956
|
0.0000
|
| t1 |
-0.0027
|
0.0011
|
-2.3652
|
0.0180
|
| t2 |
0.0000
|
0.0000
|
2.7327
|
0.0063
|
| pcs1 |
-0.0048
|
0.0173
|
-0.2773
|
0.7815
|
| pcs2 |
-0.0582
|
0.0321
|
-1.8092
|
0.0704
|
| pcs3 |
-0.0196
|
0.0049
|
-4.0229
|
0.0001
|
| pcs4 |
-0.0293
|
0.0051
|
-5.7234
|
0.0000
|
| pcs5 |
0.0185
|
0.0067
|
2.7668
|
0.0057
|
| pcs6 |
-0.3778
|
0.1279
|
-2.9538
|
0.0031
|
| pcs7 |
-0.0006
|
0.0045
|
-0.1359
|
0.8919
|
| pcs8 |
-0.0028
|
0.0093
|
-0.2977
|
0.7659
|
| ps1 |
0.1880
|
0.0073
|
25.6602
|
0.0000
|
| ps2 |
0.0093
|
0.0079
|
1.1860
|
0.2356
|
| ps3 |
-0.0335
|
0.0048
|
-6.9367
|
0.0000
|
| ps4 |
-0.0142
|
0.0053
|
-2.6821
|
0.0073
|
| ps5 |
0.0470
|
0.0052
|
9.0138
|
0.0000
|
| ps6 |
0.0813
|
0.0135
|
6.0386
|
0.0000
|
| ps7 |
-0.0353
|
0.0046
|
-7.6310
|
0.0000
|
| ps8 |
0.0274
|
0.0056
|
4.8885
|
0.0000
|
| I1 |
0.1292
|
0.0118
|
10.9891
|
0.0000
|
| I2 |
0.0659
|
0.0121
|
5.4652
|
0.0000
|
| I3 |
0.0737
|
0.0119
|
6.1835
|
0.0000
|
| I4 |
0.0623
|
0.0120
|
5.1942
|
0.0000
|
| I5 |
0.0031
|
0.0122
|
0.2546
|
0.7991
|
| I6 |
-0.0090
|
0.0122
|
-0.7377
|
0.4607
|
| holiday1 |
-0.0270
|
0.0134
|
-2.0066
|
0.0448
|
| holiday2 |
0.1043
|
0.0193
|
5.3928
|
0.0000
|
| influ |
0.0757
|
0.0101
|
7.5012
|
0.0000
|
| temperature |
0.0119
|
0.0015
|
7.8817
|
0.0000
|
| humidity |
-0.0013
|
0.0004
|
-3.6649
|
0.0002
|
Table
E3: Core model for admissions due to respiratory disease,
younger than 15 age group
Residual Standard Error = 0.1611, Multiple R-Square = 0.5772
N = 1096,
F-statistic = 50.1842 on 29 and 1066 df, p-value = 0
|
Value
|
Std.
Error
|
t-value
|
p-value
|
| (Intercept) |
2.6635
|
0.3881
|
6.8637
|
0.0000
|
| t1 |
0.0057
|
0.0020
|
2.7963
|
0.0052
|
| t2 |
0.0000
|
0.0000
|
-2.4056
|
0.0161
|
| pcs1 |
0.0443
|
0.0305
|
1.4499
|
0.1471
|
| pcs2 |
-0.0180
|
0.0093
|
-1.9280
|
0.0539
|
| pcs3 |
0.1879
|
0.0565
|
3.3269
|
0.0009
|
| pcs4 |
0.0356
|
0.0073
|
4.8611
|
0.0000
|
| pcs5 |
0.0523
|
0.0111
|
4.7112
|
0.0000
|
| pcs6 |
0.0722
|
0.0152
|
4.7526
|
0.0000
|
| pcs7 |
-0.0085
|
0.0068
|
-1.2490
|
0.2117
|
| pcs8 |
0.5413
|
0.2246
|
2.4102
|
0.0159
|
| ps1 |
0.2054
|
0.0128
|
16.0606
|
0.0000
|
| ps2 |
-0.0672
|
0.0083
|
-8.0824
|
0.0000
|
| ps3 |
0.1568
|
0.0124
|
12.6740
|
0.0000
|
| ps4 |
0.0351
|
0.0074
|
4.7782
|
0.0000
|
| ps5 |
0.0652
|
0.0084
|
7.8021
|
0.0000
|
| ps6 |
0.0679
|
0.0089
|
7.6073
|
0.0000
|
| ps7 |
-0.0344
|
0.0070
|
-4.9017
|
0.0000
|
| ps8 |
0.2513
|
0.0221
|
11.3826
|
0.0000
|
| I1 |
0.0470
|
0.0174
|
2.7060
|
0.0068
|
| I2 |
0.0525
|
0.0180
|
-2.9120
|
0.0036
|
| I3 |
0.0453
|
0.0178
|
-2.5459
|
0.0109
|
| I4 |
0.0684
|
0.0180
|
-3.8093
|
0.0001
|
| I5 |
0.0796
|
0.0180
|
-4.4259
|
0.0000
|
| I6 |
0.0722
|
0.0179
|
-4.0294
|
0.0001
|
| holiday1 |
0.0605
|
0.0196
|
3.0775
|
0.0021
|
| holiday2 |
0.1332
|
0.0291
|
4.5716
|
0.0000
|
| influ |
0.0848
|
0.0146
|
5.8187
|
0.0000
|
| temperature |
0.0147
|
0.0024
|
6.1126
|
0.0000
|
| humidity |
-0.0016
|
0.0006
|
-2.8834
|
0.0039
|
Table
E4: Core model for admissions due to respiratory disease,
15-64 age group
Residual
Standard Error = 0.1762, Multiple R-Square = 0.4606
N = 1096,
F-statistic = 31.3909 on 29 and 1066 df, p-value = 0
|
Value
|
Std.
Error
|
t-value
|
p-value
|
| (Intercept) |
4.5628
|
0.3401
|
13.4155
|
0.0000
|
| t1 |
-0.0060
|
0.0018
|
-3.2884
|
0.0010
|
| t2 |
0.0000
|
0.0000
|
3.4918
|
0.0005
|
| pcs1 |
-0.0792
|
0.0277
|
-2.8564
|
0.0043
|
| pcs2 |
-0.1648
|
0.0514
|
-3.2056
|
0.0013
|
| pcs3 |
-0.0226
|
0.0078
|
-2.8954
|
0.0038
|
| pcs4 |
0.0121
|
0.0108
|
1.1217
|
0.2620
|
| pcs5 |
0.0016
|
0.0073
|
0.2258
|
0.8214
|
| pcs6 |
-0.0287
|
0.0082
|
-3.4741
|
0.0005
|
| pcs7 |
-0.7270
|
0.2045
|
-3.5554
|
0.0004
|
| pcs8 |
-0.0297
|
0.0148
|
-2.0111
|
0.0443
|
| ps1 |
0.1057
|
0.0118
|
8.9898
|
0.0000
|
| ps2 |
0.0021
|
0.0125
|
0.1687
|
0.8660
|
| ps3 |
-0.0308
|
0.0078
|
-3.9732
|
0.0001
|
| ps4 |
0.0297
|
0.0084
|
3.5528
|
0.0004
|
| ps5 |
-0.0311
|
0.0074
|
-4.1914
|
0.0000
|
| ps6 |
-0.0077
|
0.0085
|
-0.9057
|
0.3651
|
| ps7 |
0.1008
|
0.0213
|
4.7275
|
0.0000
|
| ps8 |
0.0173
|
0.0089
|
1.9350
|
0.0530
|
| I1 |
0.2593
|
0.0195
|
13.2823
|
0.0000
|
| I2 |
0.2620
|
0.0197
|
13.3320
|
0.0000
|
| I3 |
0.2630
|
0.0195
|
13.4881
|
0.0000
|
| I4 |
0.2431
|
0.0196
|
12.3697
|
0.0000
|
| I5 |
0.0354
|
0.0206
|
1.7190
|
0.0856
|
| I6 |
0.0713
|
0.0204
|
3.4931
|
0.0005
|
| holiday1 |
-0.1570
|
0.0229
|
-6.8468
|
0.0000
|
| holiday2 |
0.0962
|
0.0304
|
3.1642
|
0.0016
|
| influ |
0.0323
|
0.0164
|
1.9630
|
0.0496
|
| temperature |
0.0037
|
0.0024
| | 
